The tight US elections make a big fiscal stimulus and a major reversal from Trump’s politics less likely. The election results might actually reflect that the US economy is quite strong currently. Globally, the manufacturing sector is benefitting from strong cyclical forces that are supported by monetary and fiscal stimuli and a turn-around in China. To contain COVID-infections that are spreading again strongly in Europe, governments are introducing targeted restrictions and partial lockdowns. These will weigh heavily on the service sector in the final quarter of this year.